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Book Reviews
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Oil, Jihad and Destiny
by Ronald R. Cooke
(Opportunity Analysis; 2004)
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If we were to list the most important issues facing humanity, oil depletion has to be in the top three. The economic and cultural destiny of mankind is inexorably tied to the availability of oil. It is impossible to feed our growing population without ample supplies of petroleum for fertilizer, cultivation, food processing and distribution. Oil provides the raw material for thousands of products, including medicines, clothing and heating oil. It is the only practical fuel for motor vehicles, diesel engines and airplanes.
But the days of surplus oil are coming to an end.
World oil is transitioning from a market driven by consumer demand to one limited by producer capacity. As a result, oil-exporting countries are now able to control the price and the availability of an increasingly scarce commodity. Corporate behavior, government action, cultural stability, economics, legal agreements, geography, weather, crude oil transportation, military diplomacy and the always potent combination of religion and politics are now more important than geology in developing oil production forecasts.
The approaching oil crisis will have a global reach, impacting the economic and cultural health of every region. However, the energy intensive economies of the industrial nations will suffer the greatest deterioration. That includes the United States and Canada, along with the nations of Europe and the Pacific Rim
We can either try to manage a "soft landing" or let nature take its course.
Doing something means encouraging new attitudes about fuel production and consumption as well as the privilege of parenthood on a worldwide basis. If we do nothing, chronic recession is probable.
Economic depression is possible.
Oil, Jihad and Destiny is a skillfully researched report that meticulously analyzes the pending impact of oil depletion. It provides a comprehensive examination of oil reserves and production, reviews the cultural challenges of the Middle East, analyzes the economic impact of four alternative oil depletion scenarios, and outlines a proposed course of action to enable a "soft landing." World oil production and consumption are evaluated by geographic region. This evaluation, along with a projection of how oil depletion could influence inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the price of gas, is presented in eight tables and 32 charts.
About the author: Ronald R. Cooke has over 33 years of professional marketing and business development experience. He has an extensive background in market research, industry analysis, and strategic planning. His prior experience includes technology assessment, operations analysis, and the evaluation of corporate financial performance. An economist by training, Ron has pursued the study of Cultural Economics since 1969.
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